I saw this post. I appreciate the positive take of the author, but I think his silver lining is an illusion.
The timing of Bar Kochba is according to Rav Nachman bar Yitzchak, indeed. The year of the Keitz of the Smol (see Zohar Parshat Noach 62b,63a) is 6129 or 6133. The Mabul was in year 1657, 1656 years after Adam. The middle is 3893/3895, within the period of the Bar Kochba rebellion. After we missed Moshiach at that time, the Shita of Rav Nachman lost its relevance. Keitz HaSmol remains what it was, but now the Shita of Rebbi enters: The time for Moshiach is a "year" before the Keitz. That is, the number of years between Moshiach and the Keitz are as the days of a year.
According to the Shita of Rebbe, around the time of the Vilna Gaon, Moshiach could have come a "year" (384, 365 or 354 years) before Keitz HaYamin, year 5919, which is 210 (214) years before Keitz HaSmol (6129 or 6133). According to the Shita of Rebbi, Moshiach could therefore have come in 5535, or in 5554, four years before the Gaon's death. According to the Shita of rabbi Dosa (Sanhedrin 88a), Moshiach could have come in 5519, 400 years before year 5919. Interestingly, when the Talmidim of the GR"A arrived in Eretz Yisrael, in 5569, the window was already closed: 5569 = 6133-210-354.
In our times, Moshiach could have come in 5729 (or 5733), in 5745 (or 5749), or in 5764 (or 5768).
Halfway the Mabul and Keitz HaYamin is 3788, 40 years before the Churban, the time of Yeshu. Before Keitz HaYamin is Keitz HaEmtza, 5791, 210 years before 6001. Halfway the Mabul and Keitz HaEmtza is 3724, the time of Hillel. Shabtai Tzvi's period of fame was between 384 and 354 years before Keitz HaEmtza. Even false Meshichim do not come at arbitrary times.
