The "Quartet" (US, Russia, Europe, and the UN) keeps aiming for a Palestinian State in September 2011. It may seem weird that even the unrest in the Arab lands, and the ensuing global political and economic problems, did not reduce the international pressure on Israel. But, in fact, this is not strange at all.
The September deadline was dictated, about a year ago, by Saudi Arabia. After the collapse of the Libyan oil export, the world is more than ever dependent on Saudi oil. At least, that is what the world thinks. If the world's total production of oil would fall, the world economy would collapse. The Saudis, and only the Saudis, can prevent that. At least, that is what the world wants to think.
The Saudis have promised to make up for the loss of Libyan oil. The Saudis are bluffing. They can temporarily export more oil, by selling reserves. They can, however, not actually produce much more oil. The oil resources of Saudi Arabia are rapidly depleting. In short, the Saudis will not be able to significantly increase their export in a sustainable fashion.
A year ago, the Saudis calculated that they could hide their bluff for only another year and a half. Hence the deadline. But they did not take into account that the export by a country like Libya could stop. The game plan for Israel is easy now: Play along with the Quartet - bluff. Let the Saudis show their cards.
